Nationally Determined Contributions

In one line

If a Party sets its own target and is not bound to meet it, what makes the Paris Agreement work is the machinery that measures, reviews and ratchets, and that machinery is articles 13, 14 and 15.

In exam wording: article 13 of the Paris Agreement establishes an enhanced transparency framework for action and support, with built-in flexibility for developing country Parties in the light of their capacities; article 14 establishes the global stocktake, to be undertaken in 2023 and every five years thereafter, to assess collective progress towards the purpose and long-term goals of the Agreement; and article 15 establishes a mechanism to facilitate implementation and promote compliance, consisting of a committee that is expert-based, facilitative, transparent, non-adversarial and non-punitive.

Article 13: transparency

Paragraph 1 states the purpose: to build mutual trust and confidence and to promote effective implementation.

Paragraph 2 provides the flexibility: the framework shall provide flexibility in its implementation to those developing country Parties that need it in the light of their capacities.

Paragraphs 5 and 6 state what the framework is for: to provide a clear understanding of climate change action, including clarity and tracking of progress towards achieving Parties' individual contributions and their adaptation actions, and clarity on support provided and received.

Paragraphs 7 and 8: each Party shall regularly provide a national inventory report and the information necessary to track progress made in implementing and achieving its contribution, and should provide information related to climate change impacts and adaptation.

Paragraphs 9 and 10: developed country Parties shall, and other Parties providing support should, provide information on financial, technology transfer and capacity-building support; developing country Parties should provide information on support needed and received.

Paragraphs 11 to 13: the information undergoes a technical expert review, which identifies areas of improvement and reviews consistency, and each Party participates in a facilitative, multilateral consideration of progress.

Paragraph 14 provides support to developing countries for implementing the article; paragraph 15 provides for building their transparency-related capacity on a continuous basis.

That is the answer to the obvious objection to the Paris design. A self-set target that nobody can see is worthless; a self-set target that must be reported in a standard form, reviewed by experts and defended in a multilateral session is a different thing.

Article 14: the global stocktake

Paragraph 1: the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties shall periodically take stock of the implementation of the Agreement to assess the collective progress towards achieving its purpose and long-term goals, in a comprehensive and facilitative manner, considering mitigation, adaptation and the means of implementation and support, and in the light of equity and the best available science.